Binding: Digital
Format: HTML
Label: Elsevier
Manufacturer: Elsevier
Publication Date: September 01, 2004
Publisher: Elsevier
Studio: Elsevier

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Product Description:
This digital document is a journal article from Emerging Markets Review, published by Elsevier in 2004. The article is delivered in HTML format and is available in your Amazon.com Media Library immediately after purchase. You can view it with any web browser.

Description:
In this paper we test whether returns for emerging stock markets are predictable. We analyze predictability by means of multivariate variance ratios using heteroscedastic robust bootstrap procedures. Empirical results suggest that emerging equity indices do not resemble a random walk while for developed country indices (US and Japan) we are not able to reject this hypothesis. Furthermore, by employing variable moving average (VMA) and trading range break (TRB) technical trading rules we show that there is some evidence of forecasting power. However, when we take into account trading costs and a buy and hold strategy, only a few rules generate positive excess returns. We check for robustness by analyzing returns from 1559 different trading rules, testing different sub-samples, analyzing returns in bear and bull markets, and also comparing results found for emerging markets to the US and Japan. Furthermore, for the US the Variable Moving Average trading rules suggested in Brock et al. [J. Finance 47 (1992) 1731] do not seem to have forecasting power for the recent sample used, which could be due to the fact that these rules have been widely employed by market participants having the potential abnormal gains from them disappear.

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